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Afghanistan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation August - October 2020 and Projection for November 2020 - March 2021

Nov 5, 2020

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is an innovative multi-partner initiative for improving food security and nutrition analysis and decision-making. By using the IPC classification and analytical approach, Governments, UN Agencies, NGOs, civil society and other relevant actors, work together to determine the severity and magnitude of acute and chronic food insecurity, and acute malnutrition situations in a country, according to internationally-recognized scientific standards.

IPC Secretariat is hosted at the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), funded by UNOCHA through Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nations (UNFAO) and Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC), Afghanistan. Stakeholders from different agencies active in food security and livelihood sectors contribute their technical expertise to the IPC Process in Afghanistan.

The IPC latest Post-COVID-19 analysis shows that during the post-harvest period of August to October 2020 36% of the analyzed population were facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent humanitarian action. This includes around 24% of the national population people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 11% of the population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Around 36% of the population were also in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and require targeted livelihood support to protect and grow their incomes and to safeguard them from slipping into higher levels of acute food insecurity.

During the projection period of November 2020 and March 2021, corresponding to the lean season where increased levels of negative coping mechanisms are expected as food access decreases, around 42% of the analyzed population are likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), out of which an estimated 28% of the population will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and nearly 14% of the population will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Furthermore, around 34% of the population is expected to be in a Stressed situation (IPC Phase 2).

In 2019, 25% of the population was in IPC 3 while only 8% of the population was listed as IPC 4. In 2020, 24% of the population is in IPC 3 while 11% of the population is in IPC 4. Also worrying is the corresponding 5% decrease of people in a stable food security situation with those in IPC 1 going from 33% in 2019 to 28% in 2020. Common key drivers of food insecurity across both analytical periods continue to be the ongoing insecurity, displacements and natural disasters although loss of employment and prices shocks have featured more prominently in 2020.

The impacts of this latest crisis have also disproportionally affected pre-COVID vulnerable groups such as IDPs, both prolonged and fresh IDPs who depend on fragile employment streams for their livelihoods. Assessments of displaced people show an increasing number facing either poor or borderline food consumption scores and increasing levels of debt.

 

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